Average Commander: Karn, Silver Golem and Kozilek, the Great Distortion

I've been tracking "average" commander decks since the beginning of the year. I'm fascinated with the idea that EDHREC.com can produce a deck list for a commander that represents all of the most popular choices made by players.

It's not entirely clear what the algorithm is doing over at EDHREC when asked for an average commander deck, but after watching it for a while I'm guessing that it is taking couple of passes at trying to figure out how often certain cards appear. For example, maybe it's taking every card from every deck for that commander and putting it into one giant list, then counting up how often each card appears and producing a list of the top 99 cards. It's possible that the system is somehow weighting newer decks in the database more heavily. It's also possible that the system is grouping the cards by type and finding the average number of times cards of that type appears, then finding the top cards of that type to make a list of 99 cards.

Since I'm playing Karn, Silver Golem right now I've been watching that commander list change over time. And, I've been interested in swapping for Kozilek, the Great Distortion because sometimes getting my entire board blown up by artifact removal is tedious. I'm interested in tracking both the "cheap" and "regular" budget versions of the average decks for these commanders. The "cheap" decks appear to be simply the bottom 10% of decks for that commander, which are then averaged using the same method.

I suspect that these list have a lot of pressure to remain stable. Unless a player goes back to an existing list and updates cards as they change, the list will continue to exert pressure on the average. My understanding is that EDHREC pulls deck lists from several sources.

Here are links to the current average commander decks for these commanders. You can switch between "budgets" from that page.

• Karn, Silver Golem
• Kozilek, the Great Distortion

Here's the first quarter recap with some commentary.

Karn, Silver Golem (Average Budget Deck)
The number of decks in the database increased from 181 to 228 over the first quarter. The average price of the deck from TCGPlayer Direct over this same period ranged from $563-$643. Scrapyard Recombiner was tested early in the quarter, but has since fallen out of favor. Meteor Golem and Wurmcoil Engine have both fluctuated. I'm surprised that Meteor Golem does not consistently make the cut. Paradox Engine came off the list due to it being banned, and was replaced by Vedalken Orrery. The land count increased by one during the quarter, with Labyrinth of Skophos joining the list.

Karn, Silver Golen (Cheap Budget Deck)
The number of decks in the database increased from 18 to 22 over the first quarter. The average price of the deck from TCGPlayer Direct over this same period ranged from $101-$120. Arcbound Crusher was an early choice that was dropped entirely. Golden Guardian was recently replaced by Voltaic Servant. All Is Dust finally made the cut at the end of the quarter. Ghirapur Orrery replaced Semblance Anvil at the end of the quarter as well. Brittle Effigy replaced Swiftfoot Boots. Elixir of Immortality traded places with Unwinding Clock during the quarter several times. Blasted Landscape was cut entirely. Radiant Fountain bounced in and out of the list. Phyrexia's Core made a brief appearance. Mystifying Maze joined the list early and stayed in place.

Kozilek, the Great Distortion (Average Budget Deck)
The number of decks in the database increased from 903 to 1135 over the first quarter. The average price of the deck from TCGPlayer Direct over this same period ranged from $425-$503. This list is relatively stable, but there have been a few changes. Gruesome Slaughter joined the list early in the quarter and has remained ever since. Shadowspear replaced Quicksilver Amulet. Blasted Landscape got cut early in the quarter and never reappeared. Labyrinth of Skophos replaced Mystifying Maze.

Kozilek, the Great Distortion (Cheap Budget Deck)
The number of decks in the database increased from 90 to 113 over the first quarter. The average price of the deck from TCGPlayer Direct over this same period ranged from $70-$79. This list is also relatively stable, possibly because it was featured on Commanders Quarters. Crashing Drawbridge joined the list, replacing Tamiyo's Journal. Sequestered Stash appeared and then disappeared over the quarter. Labyrinth of Skophos replaced Sea Gate Wreckage recently.