I love evaluating cards. Blue has some of the best library manipulation in the game, so it's a good place to start. The idea here is that we can apply a framework to evaluate all of the different library manipulation cards, identify strengths and weaknesses, and ultimately choose the right one(s) to slot into our decks.
Here's an example.
Brainstorm is arguably the best library manipulation spell in the game. For one blue mana (U), Brainstorm packs quite a wallop.
Brainstorm works at instant speed. From the last article, we know that spells that happen at instant speed give us the most options because we can wait until the last possible moment to cast the spell. This gives our opponent(s) the least amount of options because we can leave counter magic open (or the threat of counter magic). All things being equal, instant speed spells are best.
Brainstorm also looks at three cards and includes the magic word "draw." In other words, the cards you look at from Brainstorm actually end up in your hand. This differs from Ponder, for example, where you simply look at the three cards rather than drawing them. It is an important distinction that puts Brainstorm way out in front of other manipulation spells.
Okay, so we end up with an evaluation framework like this:
Name: Brainstorm
Casting Cost: U
Speed: Instant
Number of Cards Manipulated: 3
Drawn or Viewed?: Drawn
Other: Woah, momma.
See that "Other" category? That's where this evaluation process gets interesting. Here's a hint: If a card is restricted in the Vintage format, it's probably really (really, really) good. Brainstorm is one of those cards.
Because you actually draw the cards with Brainstorm, you can "replace" two of the cards in your hand with cards that you draw. In other words, as long as you have two cards in your hand after you cast Brainstorm, you end up with (potentially) three new cards. This is a key component of evaluating library manipulation spells. Very few of these cards actually give you more than one "new" card for your trouble. Here's another example.
Name: Ponder
Casting Cost: U
Speed: Sorcery
Number of Cards Manipulated: 3
Drawn or Viewed?: Viewed
Other: Do the shuffle!
Side-by-side, Ponder is no Brainstorm. Yet, like Brainstorm, Ponder is also restricted in Vintage. Yes, it's that good. Even though it is "slower" than Brainstorm as a sorcery vs. instant speed, Ponder still looks at three cards for one U mana. But - this is an important distinction - it doesn't draw the cards.
Ponder does have an important "feature" that Brainstorm lacks. It has the power to shuffle away the cards you look at. In effect, you can draw any one of the next three cards or alternately the fourth (unseen) card after your shuffle. What Ponder does not do is actually draw the three cards. It only draws one. In other words, like most library manipulation spells, Ponder gives you the best card out of some number of cards on top of your library.
So, if Ponder is crazy (which it is), Brainstorm is totally bonkers. Incidentally, the next card is also restricted in Vintage for a similar reason. Take a look.
Name: Thirst for Knowledge
Casting Cost: 2U
Speed: Instant
Number of Cards Manipulated: 3
Drawn or Viewed?: Drawn
Other: Woah, momma.
Even though Thirst for Knowledge (TfK) costs three total mana, it passes the instant speed test and actually draws the three cards. Even if you end up discarding two cards, as long as you had at least two cards in your hand when you cast TfK, you end up with three entirely new cards in the end. This is an immensely powerful effect at instant speed, even for three mana.
Look at it this way, as long as you have slots in your deck to spare for library manipulation spells and enough time to cast them, your deck will be considerably more consistent than without them. You know those turns where you must make your next land drop to win? These spells fix that problem. How about turns where you need to draw anything other than a land to seal the deal? Yep, they fix those problems too.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that anything more than three mana is too much mana for library manipulation in Commander. I'm sure that there are exceptions to this, but keep it in mind. I'm also going to say that at three mana, I'm not sure that anything other than TfK makes the cut. There might be something out there (Forbidden Knowledge, perhaps), but I'm not convinced. So, let's look at some more library manipulation spells for one or two mana.
Name: Preordain
Casting Cost: U
Speed: Sorcery
Number of Cards Manipulated: 2
Drawn or Viewed?: Viewed
Other: Scry before draw
Name: Serum Visions
Casting Cost: U
Speed: Sorcery
Number of Cards Manipulated: 2
Drawn or Viewed?: Scry
Other: Scry after draw
As it turns out, viable instant speed manipulation spells are rare. These are the twin one-mana library manipulation spells at sorcery speed. Neither one is anywhere near as good as Ponder. Preordain comes out ahead since you scry before you draw.
Moving on to instant speed, we have these two spells to consider:
Name: Impulse
Casting Cost: 1U
Speed: Instant
Number of Cards Manipulated: 4
Drawn or Viewed?: Viewed
Other: Does not set up your draw
Name: Telling Time
Casting Cost: 1U
Speed: Instant
Number of Cards Manipulated: 3
Drawn or Viewed?: Viewed
Other: Sets up your next draw
Impulse digs deep for only two mana, allowing you to see four cards. In addition, it moves the cards that you did not select down to the bottom of your library. This can be a good or bad thing depending on how your deck is set up. Telling Time looks at one less card than Impulse, but let's you put one card back on top. Again, this can be good or bad depending on the situation. In Commander, I'm usually looking for a particular card in a given situation, so digging one card deeper with Impulse is preferable.
Bouncing back to sorcery speed, we have these two gems:
Name: See Beyond
Casting Cost: 1U
Speed: Sorcery
Number of Cards Manipulated: 2
Drawn or Viewed?: Drawn
Other: Holy smokes!
Whenever one of these library manipulation spells actually draws the cards in question, they are usually something special. See Beyond is one of those spells. Since you actually draw the cards, as long as you have a card in your hand when you cast See Beyond you can end up with two entirely new cards. Compare this to Brainstorm. Yes, it's only two cards instead of three, but the card you get rid of is shuffled back into your deck. This is often a good thing as it means your next draw will also be an entirely new card, unlike with Brainstorm.
Name: Strategic Planning
Casting Cost: 1U
Speed: Instant
Number of Cards Manipulated: 3
Drawn or Viewed?: Viewed
Other: Fill your graveyard
Strategic Planning works a bit differently. You look at three cards, which is one less card than you see with Impulse. Plus, unlike Impulse, Strategic Planning is at sorcery speed. What makes it interesting is that the cards you don't choose end up in your graveyard. Depending on your deck construction, cards that end up in your graveyard can be as good (or better!) than cards that end up in your hand.
In a format where you run only one copy of a card other than basic lands, like in the Commander format, cards that are functionally similar or equivalent have special importance. So, if you are a fan of Ponder, don't forget that Omen is functionally equivalent for one more mana.
Name: Omen
Casting Cost: 1U
Speed: Sorcery
Number of Cards Manipulated: 3
Drawn or Viewed?: Viewed
Other: They can't all be Ponder. :(
Arguments can be made about the exact order of the following list. There are probably at least a few "good" library manipulation spells I am forgetting. Plus, what your deck is trying to do will also make certain spells "better" in certain cases. All that said, here's the order I would put these in when considering what to run in my deck:
Brainstorm
Ponder
See Beyond
Preordain
Impulse
Telling Time
Omen
Strategic Planning
Thirst for Knowledge
Serum Visions
Forbidden Knowledge
If you are running a blue commander, work your way down the list. Start slotting library manipulation spells in for higher casting cost card drawing spells. In a lot of situations, this will push your deck down the curve, give your more consistency, and still give you the cards you need when you need them.
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